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At the height of the Cold War, a statement like Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warning to the West that his country is militarily and technically ready to deploy its nuclear arsenal would have shaken the world to its core.
Now, says a Canadian expert, his words are telling of the deeply antagonistic relationship between Russia and the West, but for now, not a clear sign a nuclear attack is any closer than it was when the war in Ukraine broke out more than two years ago.
“It brought us up a notch, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But at the moment, we are still at a place where we have not gone up a notch again,” says Jane Boulden. She is a professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, as well as fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen’s University.
Boulden says Putin’s aim is likely to be a message both domestically and abroad as Russia’s presidential election, one he is all but certain to win, is about to get underway on March 15. He is likely to get another six-year term, adding to his already 24-year-long rule over the country.
“He is trying to signal domestically that Russia is strong and powerful, but also stable. The message to the rest of the world is ‘Remember we are a nuclear power,'” she says.
Putin has made similar remarks before, but what experts are closely watching is whether there is any change on the ground. Boulden says the United States is closely monitoring the troop and equipment movements in Ukraine that would hint at a nuclear deployment.
Still, Dr. Ira Helfant, of the International Steering group of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), believes the threats should be taken seriously, saying they underline the extraordinarily dangerous situation the world in which the world finds itself.
“Nuclear weapons should not be available to any country to be used in this way,” he says, adding that nuclear powers have to begin negotiations on joining the treaty on prohibitions of nuclear weapons and eliminating their nuclear arsenals. He says while this may seem counter-intuitive, this may be the right moment to start this process, while tensions are high between the U.S. and Russia.
“We need to remember there was a similar period of tension in 1962 after the Cuban missile crisis, in 1983 at the height of the Cold War, and both of those moments were followed by rapid progress towards controlling the arms race,” explains Helfant. He suggests it is time for nations to try and reach an agreement.
Canada, as a non-nuclear country, is likely to have a limited role in striking any such deal.
“It is not that we shouldn’t try, but it is unlikely that if Canada took initiative and brought both sides together that would somehow make a change,” says Boulden.
But, if there was a deal, Canada could carve itself a niche role.
“Canada, traditionally, when it has had a role to play in these areas, it has been in areas where we have expertise. For instance, how do you verify a treaty, how to make sure both sides are compliant,” she says. “We don’t have nuclear weapons, but we have a lot of nuclear technical expertise.”
Any agreement would be up to nuclear powers and their willingness to negotiate, she says, and for now, Putin’s warnings indicate no movement on that front.
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