Coach Knoblauch offers words of great wisdom on Connor McDavid’s goal-scoring drought

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This in from Mark Spector of Sportsnet, his take on Connor McDavid’s lower scoring rate this year from his column from Saturday night after the 6-3 loss of the Edmonton Oilers to the Calgary Flames.

Wrote Spector: “Connor McDavid is the greatest player in the world, and the days of finding areas of his game to be critiqued have all but passed. But how long do we watch last season’s 64-goal scorer pass off from prime shooting position before somebody says something? Because he appears hell bent on turning down Grade A’s in favour of hope passes to players in lesser scoring positions. McDavid has gone nine very productive games now without a goal.”

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In the post-game scrum, TSN’s Ryan Rishaug asked Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch about the drought.

“I can’t put my finger on it. I’m not sure why,” Knoblauch said. “I think he’s had some good looks. Maybe he’s had some opportunities for him to shoot that he’s passed. But I don’t think there’s been that many. So I can’t answer that.”

My take

1. Spector isn’t the only observer of the Edmonton Oilers to wonder about McDavid’s current goal-scoring drought. And he’s not the only one to question whether or not McDavid is passing too much.

Indeed, just about every single pundit who opines on the team, as well as most fans, are asking questions. How can a superstar go from crushing it last year in the goal scoring department, 64 goals in 82 games, to weaker results this year, 21 goals in 53 games? 

2. I’ve now just looked at McDavid’s goal scoring through the lens of video analysis and it’s even more confounding to me what’s going on with him.

How so?

If you’re a fan yelling, “Shoot! Shoot! Shoot!” at the greatest player on earth, did you realize that McDavid is launching almost the exact same number of shots on net this season as last season?

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Last year he fired 6.5 shots at net per game and scored 0.78 goals per game. This year he’s firing 6.3 shots per game and scoring 0.40 per game.

So 6.5 shots at net per game last year, 6.3 this year.  Hardly any difference, certainly not enough to account for his goals per game rate almost being cut in half.

To put it simply: He already IS shooting.

3. It’s also the case that when we look at McDavid’s overall major contributions to all Grade A shots, he’s also almost exactly at the same level as he was in his brilliant 2022-23 scoring campaign.

Last year, he averaged 6.9 major contributions to Grade A shots per game, putting up 153 points in 82 games, 1.87 points per game, his second highest seasonal rate.

This year, he’s average 6.8 major contributions to Grade A shots pe game, putting up 89 points in 53 games, 1.68 points per game, his third highest seasonal rate.

McDavid is still crushing it overall on the attack.

He’s got the highest points per game rate of top NHL attackers. Despite battling through an injury earlier this year, he’s likely to win the NHL scoring title again. He’s been charging up the leader board.

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4. OK, so McDavid is putting the puck at net almost exactly as much as last season and he’s making shots and passes to create Grade A shots almost exactly as much as last season. But there is one huge difference between his shooting this year and last year, other than the amount the puck is going in. His shot quality is poorer this season.

He’s getting those shots at net, but more of them are missing the net, more of them are getting blocked, fewer of them are Grade A shots, and fewer are the most dangerous of all shots, the 5-alarm shots we track through video review at the Cult of Hockey.

Last year he had 1.1 missed shots per game, but he’s up to 1.3 this year. He had 1.2 shots blocked per game last year, this year 1.6. He had 4.3 shots on net per game last year, this year 3.3.

Crucially, he had 3.1 Grade A shots per game to lead the Oilers last year. This year he’s got just 2.1 per game.

And, most crucially, he had 1.5 5-alarm shots last season, just 0.9 per game this year.

Grade A shots go in about 25 per cent of the time, with the subset of 5-alarm shots going in about 33 per cent of the time.

5. The obvious question then: Why has McDavid’s shot quality dropped so much?

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I have two theories.

First, that McDavid is nursing some injury where he can skate and pass as well as ever, but it impacts his shooting, making it difficult for him to snap pucks so savagely on net as he did last year. To my eye, this is what I think I see, that last year he came charging down the wing, or cutting into the upper slot, and he nuked wrist shots past the goalie on a regular basis. I am pretty sure I’m not seeing this so much this year.

Maybe he’s got some injury that hinders him from bazooking that wrister with as much thrust as he could muster last year. It’s possible.

McDavid has denied he’s got any lasting injury.

Of course, why would he or his coach admit it if McDavid does? It’s to no advantage to them to give his opponents specific information or for the player or the coach to give McDavid an excuse, even if it’s real.

My second theory? That opposing teams learned a lot from how Vegas set up in the playoffs against McDavid last year, and that to a team they’re now packing in the slot, parking the bus in a zone defence, in order to keep McDavid from penetrating the inner slot to get off wicked shots.

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After all, McDavid has 25 breakaways shots last year. This year he’s had just seven.

I suspect this is the case, that teams are playing super cautious defensive hockey when McDavid is on the ice, and that Knoblauch may be well aware of this strategy.

But, again, why acknowledge to any opponent that what they’re doing is working? Why encourage them in their tactics?

It could also be the case that McDavid isn’t injured and/or that there’s not much difference in defensive tactics this year to last and that Knoblauch truly is baffled as to what is going on. If that’s the case, and he’s simply admitting he’s uncertain about a mysterious matter, I love his answer all the more.

What’s the use in pretending to know it all when you don’t? What’s the point of being certain about something where you’re not certain?

I’m certainly uncertain about what’s going on. As I said, I have theories, but they could well be incorrect.

I suspect Knoblauch has his own theories, and he would certainly have insider knowledge of any injury, but I love his stance here, his apparent ease at not needing to be seen as the smartest guy in the room, the hockey sensei with all the answers.

If the McDavid and Knoblauch are going to figure out how the captain can score more, it won’t be listening to fans who yell out for him to shoot. It will be on their own, through hard work, hard reflection and new tactics. When we see it, we’ll know the mission has been accomplished.

Given it’s Connor McDavid we’re talking about, I suspect we’ll see that come to pass.

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