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Tragedy set to unfold in tropics

The temperature is rising rapidly in the tropics. The image below shows the situation in the tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-260°E) through February 14, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.3°C, i.e. 1.3°C above 1979-2000.

On April 24, 2016, it was 26.8°C, the highest temperature on record in the tropics, 1°C above 1979-2000, as the above im age also shows. The image below shows temperature anomalies over the years. 

Note that the above anomalies are calculated from 1979-2000, which isn’t pre-industrial. When calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher. Also have a look at the recent analysis of sponges collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image below. 

According to NOAA, there is a 100% chance that the current El Niño will persist through February-March-April 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 

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