U.S. President Joe Biden is losing support to Donald Trump among those who say they are “likely” to vote in the 2024 presidential election, according to a poll.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide was conducted between February 25 and 28. It showed that Trump, the expected GOP presidential candidate, is beating Biden by five points (48 percent to 43 percent), with the Republican extending his lead over the president by three points, compared to a previous survey last December (46 to 44 percent).
In yet another warning sign for Biden’s reelection hopes, when broken down further, the results show that Trump is now the more-favored candidate among those who said they are “likely” to vote in the November race by a margin of four points (48 to 44 percent).
The results are a complete turnaround from the previous New York Times/Siena survey in December. It showed that, while Biden was behind in a general poll, the president beat Trump when those who said they were “almost certain” or “very likely” to cast a ballot in the presidential election (47 percent to 45 percent).
Biden has frequently faced concerns that his age, cognitive ability, and poor approval ratings are severely damaging his hopes of a second term in office. There is no medical evidence that this is the case. Newsweek emailed Biden’s campaign team for comment on Saturday.
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The new poll paints another worrying picture for the president, as 47 percent of respondents say they “strongly” disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job, the highest figures recorded by The New York Times/Siena during any point of Biden’s presidency.
Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, previously told Newsweek that, while “likely” voters tend to favor Biden in polls, this may not be an accurate reflection of the results come November.
“If the overall turnout this fall declines from 2020, a possibility given dissatisfaction with the alternatives, Biden may have a slight advantage,” Borick said.
“However, the lack of enthusiasm for Biden combined with Trump’s demonstrated ability to bring out less-regular voters—such as lower-educated and working-class voters—may negate the slight advantage Biden has in polls that give higher weights to traditional likely voters.”
Not only is Biden losing the support of likely voters, the poll also shows that potential voters are struggling to get excited about the 81-year-old’s candidacy.
Only 23 percent of Democratic primary voters said they were enthusiastic about Biden, compared to 48 percent of Republicans who are enthusiastic about Trump in 2024.
The poll also says that the lack of enthusiasm for Biden could see him struggle to retain those who supported him in 2020, even though he is likely to be up against Trump again.
The results show Biden is winning 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they may now vote for Trump. In comparison, 97 percent of those who voted for Trump at the last election, in what was a record-breaking turnout, said they would back the Republican again this year.
“It’s going to be a very tough decision—I’m seriously thinking about not voting,” Mamta Misra, a economics professor in Lafayette, Louisiana, who voted for Biden in 2020, told The New York Times.
“Trump voters are going to come out, no matter what. For Democrats, it’s going to be bad. I don’t know why they’re not thinking of someone else.”
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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