![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia0pyl4d-id_Jy58FCjQKweyt5IyaTVS9fZ-2sVWfB8RP6oV8lrT7f_b7s74fndc_1ztVVsIsdEsovHd56NQ-qhPjiPUyglCmC4tlHx6dANwdNOGTTwT897sON2SNoTF7p9fJ6M92R4jzgDctSVESvvnArh1AInpA8oVbnZrscmTEu1bxP_fh5aesVmFU/w640-h490/October-2023.jpg?resize=640%2C490&ssl=1)
The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, and the image below, adapted from NASA, both use the same 1951-1980 baseline to illustrate the October 2023 temperature anomaly.
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2nD5LLK8-v0nfKAmGxLkudpm_mNvj-RsZ_irYgqg0a282cbqqrajjw07pzDY1dXYcqxOygDtHcsCcXd9GZFNkV2TQS97VJ__R_Sgg89SLWzzt2N-HxtmYwPyvGqZjgdLmQLNIWN0rfinSIMv2Btn8ZAhwL7fL5r5-l3kzw-8JrjnpspEB-_rgJ5o_zvs/w640-h412/October-2023.png?resize=640%2C412&ssl=1)
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUoeX6YMSBSgZiB1_0NLfnuKue5tgLlCWoFL4sKWjFjpzHiKJ2Yd3RFnaGybdbWXO89qlXxW80mtjKSp_rHIAeTmwvVU0ZM3rDfbuPWXQKc2iUr96vc1ltaxoXUxkuN6aaDLMHOw8p7vCcLaX2BY2sFVEY6_eKzfZlPxO_KxhEnH6qvOaIYUaMpF31snI/w289-h400/historic-rise-1750-2022.png?resize=289%2C400&ssl=1)
Anomalies are very high, especially over the Arctic Ocean, which reflects the enormous amounts of heat that are transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.
The image on the right illustrates methane’s historic rise, showing IPCC and, more recently, WMO data. Methane (CH₄) reached 1923 parts per billion (ppb) in 2022, 264% of the 1750 level, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached 417.9 parts per million (ppm) in 2022, 150% of the 1750 level, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached 335.8 ppb, 124% of the 1750 level.
This image below shows some very high hourly average methane levels recently recorded at Barrow, Alaska.
The image below shows high monthly methane levels at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhafYL1DED_ghV01-bso8FDzcjesXjFmDQwJJGkFRuAMKlHcErNn6i-mAkcHBE_a0wnntQnVZ0B0cyRFvEGNPGsPQgvq3fsP-Z-AIeO2WPXGPVvlVxQsRHETl9RgkpEtDyBV7g4zFzOvEQSYBKG2LI7QKNltM_zi2cCZWMT6dlekuoV4bxhC28tFV9HOn0/w640-h456/Hawaii-November-21-2023.png?resize=640%2C456&ssl=1)
The image below, created with a Copernicus forecast for November 15, 2023 03 UTC, shows very high methane levels over the Arctic at 500 hPa.
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcQYJ3JTF6xaTescH5a9rvIZjPb8d22EZIsDTVU-rl4RNxMYQVHzesTFr8i5GoDHd_ayYxnBjcgq9NOA1H0thAX9IcEj4fh1yPfKLXTxVrZXfheRNCh1FA2ShMUBr9jesM-WXukzglRzziaVs1aHSv7h2ME9ecgmHljD6zhz7yqePEkLscnpXlMFILejI/w640-h374/Methane.jpg?resize=640%2C374&ssl=1)
The image below shows that the NOAA-20 satellite recorded high methane levels over the Arctic Ocean, especially north of Alaska, on November 15, 2023 AM at 399.1 mb.
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjsNLu_O1SXWPPd3vEa_RaMfY88Qdloqfoq2NuhhN1tx_rRjuTLJqJrtJ10qa9t7FGXePpUix3KVIllp28qohFNldAs74NUIw9KBz4XcOfueOqU9sbnpY5dnWpbrEOsKhMvchDCmsCjfOZ-AsVPYVxtRpSeif2x0cs7MOT1egCsYoJJXM2CZy8ULT2Tu0/w640-h514/November-15-2023.jpg?resize=640%2C514&ssl=1)
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYYezitv61uC5X2aNMwo14O4eavZmP90ej-AXhgeV_647ekMOwqOAG86g3pXIxoDlSgG2_fTpmV36z_069mFFBd2M11vEMLCIPOPSkkDzjPJaoNpvG1jmPEMnpFMLbsn2w0OqRYMK9P_Lt2Lnz5MPKtoew17GlybLOXKEs2ownfMW6o9-JtlT_T_kHBxQ/w640-h512/November-17-2023.png?resize=640%2C512&ssl=1)
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQHkTJNw6NjN13HFKeLOnloFSnGJ9sI_S1uP1cM8akT-NXC3Ym1Oa0RSj5XiBeHG7wjFhscWG7LUTwBroyxzxuttPebY0aUAhQN1LrQgUlLEwKtE3AJQ5pg419NzaOFTmI3FPC-4XjcYZXLR7qcuLHbX9-AVAMOKIEyrXQH4ZxatTcwa_qNNFsMFEDDp0/w640-h516/November-18-2023.png?resize=640%2C516&ssl=1)
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8rQLoN6ySJ5i7JFqqMZ9ty4ARu8wHenpj9oxhI7nREUiNUYEDuYM9nFvLi352pC_LbJ6jfh6OAcCwPepoXHje1KtmkK0w2rVjv3iFfLHOuaQZO9P7phBaxrJv37CndhYtaIxjxPNy0ii1TLeMACve0-l8ij5FJYpxxGUQ1r2pvwMiqfnE1E5R2YVYN4Q/w640-h514/November-19-2023.png?resize=640%2C514&ssl=1)
The Argo Float 6904087 compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters.
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[ click on images to enlarge ] |
The Argo Float 6901934 compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters.
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[ click on images to enlarge ] |
Arctic Ocean surface temperatures are strongly influenced by air temperatures and seasons, ranging from more than 10°C to as low as -1.8°C when there is sea ice.
Over the next few months, as sea ice keeps growing in extent, this seals off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere. This makes it harder for heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere and increases the danger that more heat will reach sediments located at the seafloor and cause methane to be released from hydrates as well as methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates.
![](https://i0.wp.com/blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAjvpuhJBolxGYrCYWaigGTGDJeWpYHehX5DT3ynlarzsL3nIKX3KtNaz9ZCQQg_cctooUMSyfeabirPqJvcxZjXakhByVwcS3dwmQRUTZL04RmSSbOjkqjgBN2jnXlY8gvC4rcMCtcKv1aEoNnvTzECVDEaSVQ3PcSjj36UmoGgc8P0Jj8nd_KuxoImM/w640-h490/cmip6-ssp585-2100-1852-1900.png?resize=640%2C490&ssl=1)
Note also that even a small temperature rise (of less than 1°C) can destabilize a vulnerable methane hydrate, which can cause an eruption that in turn can destabilize neighbouring hydrates, resulting in a self-reinforcing feedback loop of methane releases, including methane in the form of free gas from underneath the hydrates. This can drive up temperatures very rapidly.
Seafloor methane is only one out of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C within a few years, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.
Conclusion
Links
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps
• NASA Temperature anomaly October 2023
• WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 19 – 15 November 2023
• Copernicus – Methane forecasts
• NOAA – Carbon Cycle Gases – Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
• Extinction
• Pre-industrial
• Transforming Society
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