“Through the study, we show that EU electricity imports from GB could decrease significantly, with export of green electricity from GB amongst the blocked flows. The scale of potential flow reductions could have a big impact on investment decisions for new cross-border projects and on financial results for existing assets,” said Asimina Karakyriakou, Principal at AFRY Management Consulting.

“CBAM enters into full force in 2026, but trading for this time period and beyond is already happening and investment decisions for the future are being taken, so impacts are already being felt. Action is needed now to address the issues identified,” said Simon Bradbury, Senior Principal at AFRY Management Consulting.

“EU CBAM in its current form could create a very significant trade barrier for electricity imports into the EU even if the carbon prices in the third country are identical. This would negatively impact all dimensions of the energy trilemma. Political will is urgently called upon to get the identified issues addressed and an EU CBAM exemption for the UK e.g. via relinking the ETS schemes should be examined,” said Bart Goethals, Chief Commercial Officer, Nemo Link Ltd.


Originally published on 7 March by AFRY.

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